The premiere of Black Panther 2018 was not only a new millionaire success for Marvel but a real social milestone in the United States. the sequel, Wakanda Forever, not only aspires to repeat heart attack figures at the box office but is one of the highlights of the fourth phase of the Marvel Cinematic Universe. Its output numbers, undoubtedly remarkable, let us intuit something we already expected: that first installment is unsurpassed.
With a debut of 331.6 million, 181.3 domestic and 150.3 international (world minus North America), Wakanda Forever fulfills the predictions and brings another millionaire success for Marvel. We’ve lost count since that long ago The Avengers (Joss Whedon, 2012) that changed everything (at a time when the MCU was basically Iron Man’s hit, a couple of averages at the box office, and a green flop), the increased benefits to box office in the second phase (to the extent that the Thor sequel was successful) and already with the end of the brutal party that were the last two revenge installments. just before Black Panther stood as a huge success in North America until No Way Man came to explain to us that this pandemic was quite similar to Spider-Man: the success of this film will have to be analyzed in the future. But that’s for another article.
We said that the opening of 331.6 million has been remarkable. But let’s go to the elephant of the matter: it is inevitable to compare with the previous installment. Inevitable but problematic. Because? Traditionally at the box office when a film becomes a generational milestone this can easily be the highest grossing of the saga or difficult to beat. It happened with Star Wars (George Lucas, 1977) and almost with Harry Potter (Chris Columbus, 2001). The same with Wonder Woman (Patty Jenkins, 2017) or the aforementioned Black Panther (Ryan Coogler, 2018). If in other cases (as with the saga of The Lord of the Rings or with the UCM itself) a gradual increase in fans is generated, in these what happens is that the boiling point where everyone comes to see the film occurs in a first and historic installment. So it is normal that the box office is not exceeded with the first sequel. Be careful, of course, you have to see which fall we are talking about.
Wakanda Forever, with its debut of 181.3 million in North America, has distributed its initial box office with a maintenance that very possibly indicates good word of mouth, since if we separate the box office from the so-called Royal Friday (Thursday + Friday), it they perceive sustained figures. With this debut, right behind the sequel of Doctor Strange (187.4 million). With this debut, and the so far few clues about a good reception (= more people who repeat and people who come without being a fan of the character or the UCM), we could think of a reception higher than the meager x2 multiplier. 1 of Doctor Strange 2. With a x2.5 it could go up to 450 million. As always we will have more clues (almost definitive) during these weekdays and the second weekend.
Internationally, this debut of 150.3 million has 15 in the United Kingdom, 13.7 in France, 12.8 in Mexico and 8.9 in Korea. This has undoubtedly been the market that has fallen the most compared to the previous installment. The variations with respect to this are curious: from -40% in the United Kingdom and -65% in Korea, we go to +64% in India or the great +80% in France. Hard to predict the international reception, but a multiplier of x3 would be possible. With this it could go up to 400 million. If we add the household figure, Wakanda Forever it could land somewhere between 800 and 900 million. This is a drop of around 500 million compared to the first installment. Without Russia and most likely China, despite everything, these are still remarkable numbers that make it very clear what kind of success it was Black Panther in North America with these historic 700 million.
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