Avatar: The sense of water, with 1708 million collected, is approaching 2000 million as quickly as one of the biggest ‘owned’ seen recently in the fabulous world of clickbait. Completely ignoring the workings of the box office (or the previous installment, for that matter), it now appears to be a mysterious case of miraculous success or something. Not at all: this was going to very, very high numbers from the beginning. Luckily, reality trumps clickbait.
The world of film box office analysis and debate is small and rich in, shall we say, content. geek, nerd or any other anglicism they can think of. That the box office, especially blockbuster like the sequel of Avatar, routinely enters the never-ending shootout of clickbait headlines for networks across many media outlets (of all sizes), unsurprisingly. But, ah, in this case a hilarious case has occurred: by following the box office so far one can anticipate headlines by, perhaps, a Wakanda Forever. But with Avatar a little more patience is needed in this communication. And looking for headlines, in many unfortunate cases (failure and such), Avatar: The sense of water, has attached a good owned (another anglicism). But of those you imagine a James Cameron starting to laugh
On this same website, just a few hours after its premiere, we already tweeted that this smelled of a prolonged commercial life. And in our article of December 19 we already pointed out the options of Avatar: The sense of water reach 2000 million. This ‘but’ of the headline was, and still is, China. In other words: nothing has surprised us after this debut. And it’s not about getting the number right, but getting the statement right that this film would have a long journey and consequently opposed to superhero blockbusters and the like. And this is where, to paraphrase Yoda al Episode Vmany media outlets that were looking for shocking headlines have failed.
In many of our articles we comment the so-called multiplier, that is: the number by which the box office of the first weekend is multiplied compared to the final figure. In recent blockbusters (almost Avatar it was the last case in the old way), almost all of them superheroes and with previous fans, are given quite low multipliers. From 2 or 3 (for example: debut at 300 million worldwide and end at 900). This is due to fan anxiety that makes many rush to the cinema. So much so that there are relatively few people left to see (or repeat) this film. with Avatarand its sequel, something different happens (as we discuss in different articles): it is a phenomenon based on the need to see this in the cinema, on the big screen, as a unique show in theaters. But without a fan phenomenon. no rush Everyone sees it, of all ages, countries and customs. No more and no less than the same case seen with Titanic and the first installment of Avatar. Surprises? few
So after the debut 434.5 million at the worldwide box office we warned that there would be high multipliers due on the one hand to this global behavior, little fan, and on the other due to the particularities of the Christmas market (and the absence of competition until Ant-Man). And right, right, that’s what’s happening: 1708 million, soon 1900 and in a few days it will reach 2000. About the famous 2000 million that, clearly, Cameron let loose a little on the brava, we don’t even talk anymore because then it’s already given to us for another article: obviously Avatar: The sense of water it takes much, but much, less to make a profit. Another issue is that the more that is collected, with 3 outstanding installments, the better, but we already say that this is another issue.
So where will his tour at the box office end? In North America, with 516.7 million, it boasts of being able to reach 100 million more. We do not rule out the 650 and maybe a little more (the 700 is still there although a little far). With 650 endings, the multiplier would be 4.8. Unheard of in current blockbusters (must go to Wonder Womanfor example) but what was expected in the Cameron world and which, we insist, was what was expected for this film but not for the Avatar debuts below that and is headed for failure.
At an international level (ie: worldwide minus North America) it points to incredible figures considering that in China it has been fair because of the Covid issue and that in Japan it has remained even fairer (curious history of the aftermath of ‘success in Japan) . In Europe the box office is a scandal. Right now the international is at 1191.3 million and aims to reach 1500-1600 million (again multiplier above 4, surprise!). This would give us for a world end of 2180 to 2250 million.
And here comes the chicha. We do not rule out that it exceeds 2200, and by the way a Titanic as the third film in history without adjusting, but rather the 2300 are on the table. And some bold analyst would say that 2400 is also a possibility. Anyway Avatar: The sense of water will give James Cameron 3 of the top 4 films ever at the worldwide box office.
Will 3D cinema ever prevail?