The box office debut of Avatar: the sense of water, has settled with 441.6 million worldwide. In terms of future commercial travel, it is a reasonable and anticipated figure, but it gives a possible problem that must be solved with a prolonged stay in theaters.
In the previous week’s article we noticed that the sequel to Avatar, like its predecessor, and even Titanic, would have a very different behavior at the box office than the blockbusters that hit our theaters since the turn of the century. Nothing to do with superhero installments or fan-filled franchises where the box office is given in just 2-3 weekends and allows us to pinpoint the final figure with a reasonable margin of error. Avatar is contemplated as a transversal event, which everyone wants to see at the cinema, but with less anxiety than a vengeful, galactic or magical Hogwarts installment. For that the 434.5 million of the debut of Avatar: the sense of water they are undoubtedly positive and within what was expected. But there is a but. A possible danger.
We start, as always, with the domestic market (US + Canada) with a debut of 134 million. Figure within the plausible once we heard the first data from Thursday night (the fascinating world of extrapolation thanks to previous cases). It might seem, beyond that it is undoubtedly an excellent figure, a little scarce. We insist: it has nothing to do with, for example, the madness of a year ago to find out if a No Way Man 2, 3 or 89 different Spider-Mans from other universes appeared. Avatar, the original, debuted with 77.0 million and finished with 749.7. It is a multiplier (first weekend vs final figure) of 9.7. In today’s blockbuster terms, multipliers of 2 and a bit, 3 at the most are usually given. Do you see it? Avatar: the sense of water it will not have the same as its predecessor but with a generous 4 or 5 it would go to a final over 600 million. Not ruling out 700-800 if he gets a solid above 5.
At the international level (world minus domestic), Avatar: the sense of water has achieved 307.6 million for a total of 441.6 worldwide. China’s 57.1, Korea’s 24.7, Germany’s 19.9, France’s 19.3, India’s 18.1, the United Kingdom’s 14.2 and Spain’s 7.8 stand out. Are these numbers bad? Not at all, they are still in this long-haul idea (high multipliers) though it should be confirmed, much more crucially than with other blockbusters, in the coming days and weeks. The good reception from critics and those who have already seen it in theaters indicates that what was planned should happen. International 1 billion should be a reality.
However, this figure, which was a bit dubious for some time, comes from China. Not long ago, before 2020, we would have bet on a horizon of 600 or 700 million in China alone. Which could lead to the sequel of Avatar to stand as the biggest hit of all time (unadjusted). But the pandemic situation with a high percentage of closed cinemas and a drastic reduction in expectations has paid off with this debut of 57.1 million. Now the final figure seems to be heading below 200 million.
Predict the final box office figure of Avatar: the sense of water has its risk due to this uncertainty about the multipliers. Early data from Asia on Monday indicate that it is already happening. The wide esteem to see this film in the best conditions (rooms) available ratifies this possible commercial life that would occur between this same week and most likely almost the entire month of January. With the 500 million this Tuesday, and 1000 this coming weekend, Avatar: the sense of water he does not rule out, despite China, being able to reach 2000 million. In the next few days, we will surely have a clearer idea of what kind of maintenance takes place with a film that, it seems, everyone wants to see at the cinema.