It seemed that the day would never come, but it is here: the sequel to Avatar hits theaters this week. An eternal wait that made us, for moments, doubt the potential at the box office of a film that became a milestone that only Endgame was able to overcome. But can Avatar 2 become the new historical queen of the box office?
We all know the story. James Cameronfamous for his expensive productions, his own creation forever attached to the collective imagination (The Terminator, of course), and a couple of other hits, he released Titanic and became the new king measures of the box office. Although not completely inactive, especially with regard to this ship, the Canadian went 12 years without releasing a film. And when he did, with Avatar, repeated the play again. He was the only one capable of surpassing himself. Although it really wasn’t a bigger success than Titanic if it again achieved a colossal feat at the box office. So: Are we going to fall back into the trap of doubting James Cameron?
In this fun sport of predicting box office numbers we must, as an essential ingredient, anticipate the tastes of the public. I Avatar here it seems (and we can confirm it with figures) not to enjoy the same support, let’s say, a fan of a franchise like Star Wars, Harry Potter, the Tolkien world or of course the Marvel universe. We are talking, of course, about this fan behavior, in which key characters and scenes become a claim in themselves, creating emotional dependence and anticipation at the box office. Avatar doesn’t seem to have even remotely created that emotional connection, or even a solid fan base.
At this point, you have to ask yourself how the hell we can ask each other in the middle of nowhere Avatar 2 can repeat the box office success of its predecessor. Well, possibly for the same reason as that one: it is this almost irresistible need to see this in the cinema. And let everyone see it. This is the only way to explain how, without this phenomenon being that avengersright now it has projections that are already scary.
So let’s go to the chicha of the article: how much box office can the sequel of Avatar? At the outset we have impeccable factors in terms of the box office: it premieres at Christmas, slot which Cameron himself almost invented with Titanic and above all The Lord of the Rings. Even the Star Wars saga went from being a spring event to a winter event. A temporary space where the box office, even if it suffers on certain days (for obvious reasons), tends to be a long haul. And, of course, without any competition (Wakanda Forever it is already falling and no one dares to schedule a film near Avatar). So if all goes well, he’s free to go.
Regarding specific figures, we can already get an idea. In North America there seems to be a consensus (which may later be completely wrong, of course) on a debut in the 150 to 200 million range. It may seem (very) relatively low but we must remember that, as we said, Avatar is not one No Way Man. Because it’s an event film, that everyone wants to see but without the fan crush, it aims for a high and unusual multiplier these days. with an output of, let’s say, 180 and a multiplier of 4 would already go to 720 million (ground from the first installment, unadjusted, of course). And there is no need to rule out a multiplier of even 5 which would already be 900 million and land Episode VII.
In China pre-sales in Mayoan (Chinese pre-sales system) are very powerful and suggest a similar debut of 150 to 200 million. The restrictions due to Covid, which are 52% of cinemas open at the moment, will undoubtedly be an impediment to larger numbers. But it seems that they are heading for a gradual reopening and we do not rule out the final 400 to 500 million. This is: just with north america and china this already smacks of at least over 1 billion. Without ruling out that it generously exceeds this figure.
Assuming more declines in Europe and even Latin America, compared to its predecessor, it is difficult not to see 1000 more adding up the rest of the world (minus Russia, of course). So Avatar 2 points, right now to be able to exceed 2000 million i in some scenarios it seems to be able to compete with the original from 2009 and with Endgame as the most successful film of all time (unadjusted, which would be there Titanic). In a few days we will have very reliable clues with the first data from Thursday. Stay tuned!
Box office stories (II): Avatar (2009)